Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, even though this conflict has not yet turned military. This belief allows the Kremlin to allocate resources to conduct probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying weaknesses and boundaries. Russia has been engaging in covert activities in Europe against NATO nations, such as sabotaging Polish railway lines and attempting to disrupt undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. These actions aim to disrupt NATO support for Ukraine and sow discord in Western countries.
While Russia’s actions have not crossed the threshold for a military response from NATO, their use of proxies makes it challenging to attribute these attacks directly to them. Despite the lack of sophisticated coordination, Russia’s efforts have targeted countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which provide significant assistance to Ukraine. In contrast, the UK, a major supporter of Ukraine, has faced fewer direct attacks.
Although Russia invests resources in monitoring the UK, disruptions to their intelligence networks in Europe have forced them to rely on local proxies, reducing the effectiveness of their operations. However, Russia is likely to adapt and improve its tactics over time, posing a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.