The El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen even further through 2027 and could potentially become the most powerful on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events into the following year, as per the World Meteorological Organization.
During a news conference in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo expressed that if the current trend persists, this El Niño event might surpass any previously monitored occurrences, surpassing the scales used over the past four decades.
According to the UN weather agency, their predictions indicate a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will endure until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of confidence is unprecedented, marking the first time such certainty has been communicated by the WMO.
A potent El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized that El Niño is rapidly intensifying, indicating that the planet is venturing into unexplored territory as temperatures rise.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakening trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting up to twelve months and causing severe weather events like heavy rains and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño episode has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO stated that the phenomenon is expected to peak later this year, with lingering effects extending into 2027, leading to elevated global temperatures in the upcoming year, as stated by Saulo.
Emphasizing the need for preparedness and early warnings, Saulo underscored the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and humanitarian organizations to provide essential climate insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.