Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s figures by almost 50%, with approximately 20 million barrels being transported to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data. The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, a route typically considered riskier and more costly. However, this year it gained appeal due to disruptions in other key shipping routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region.
As conflicts in Iran and Ukraine escalated, causing inflation and making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners, tanker freight rates reached unprecedented levels. This led Asian refiners to explore alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America, resulting in higher demand for the NSR despite the hefty tariffs and the need for icebreaker assistance.
For Russia, which oversees the NSR, this route offers a secure option compared to European waters where oil tankers have faced detainment. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil shipped via the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by about 35% this year compared to 2025, as per CEO Alexander Dyukov. Additionally, Russia anticipates a rise in liquid natural gas (LNG) shipments to Asia via the NSR, especially following the commencement of Arctic LNG deliveries. President Vladimir Putin shared at an economic forum in Vladivostok that Russia aims to double cargo turnover through the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade.
The recent opening of Rosneft’s massive oil project, Vostok Oil, in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.