Keir Starmer has returned from his visit to the Far East, successfully securing important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, Downing Street is pleased with the smooth Beijing trip. However, the focus is now shifting to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the traditionally Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will choose their next MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by the Labour party’s governing body has raised concerns among some MPs who fear it could backfire.
One backbencher remarked, “If we lose the by-election, the perception will be that Keir Starmer sacrificed a seat to keep Andy Burnham out, and that won’t sit well.” Another MP added, “No. 10 already anticipates losing the seat, as they believe it will go to Reform or the Greens due to blocking Andy.”
Despite some pessimism, there is optimism within Labour that the by-election can be won. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the government’s jury trial changes, stated, “I’ve spoken with Lucy Powell, who is on the ground and provides a realistic assessment. Winning this by-election is crucial to alleviate pressure on the party leader.”
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the by-election, identifying Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party as significant contenders. He emphasized that the election outcome could hinge on various factors, making it a closely contested race.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, described the by-election as a three-way competition between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, all influenced by the presence of Nigel Farage. Tactical voting is expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome, with voters expressing uncertainty on the best strategy to counter Reform’s influence.
The upcoming by-election remains unpredictable, with voters grappling with strategic voting decisions to prevent Reform from gaining ground. The dynamic nature of the race underscores the importance of strategic voting and the potential impact of party preferences on the final results.