A recent peer-reviewed study highlights a lesser-known risk faced by cocoa production due to heavy rainfall, contrary to the common focus on heat and drought as major climate threats. The study, led by Anna Lea Albright from Harvard University, indicates that excessive rain poses the most significant weather risk to cocoa cultivation.
Cocoa prices have surged in recent years, with a tonne currently priced around $6,000 US, compared to the $2,000 to $3,000 range seen since 2014. Factors contributing to this increase include heavy flooding in West Africa, the largest cocoa-growing region globally, affecting over two million farmers.
Leslie Agyare, the founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges posed by heavy rainfall on cocoa farming, impacting harvests and crop management. Despite the looming threats of climate change exacerbating extreme rainfall events, there are suggested measures to mitigate these impacts on cocoa production, a significant commodity enjoyed by billions worldwide.
The study, focusing on Ghana as the second largest cocoa producer globally, emphasizes the detrimental effects of extreme rainfall during flowering on cocoa yields, surpassing the impact of temperature fluctuations. Excessive rain can harm delicate cocoa tree flowers and pods, leading to reduced yields and increased susceptibility to fungal infections like black pod disease.
Furthermore, the research highlights a clear climate trend where warmer air, holding more moisture, leads to intensified rainfall events during the wet season, potentially impacting cocoa production. While traditional climate patterns like El Niño in West Africa may reduce the risk of extreme rainfall but increase drought likelihood, the study suggests interventions such as fungicide use and improved drainage to counter fungal diseases spread by heavy rain.
Moreover, the study addresses non-climatic risks such as aging trees and illegal activities like gold mining affecting cocoa production. While recognizing the significance of the findings, experts stress the need for infrastructure investments and improved farming practices to combat the adverse effects of extreme weather on cocoa farming sustainability in the face of changing climates.